🏆 Overall Assessment to date of World Cup 2026
The Dogbone Postulate is an accurate, insightful modeling of gamified sports governance. Every claim below links to live data.
Group Stage
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Knockout Round of 32
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Round of 16
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Quarter-Finals
$152M reached the QF tier | 2 completed, 2 remaining
🌎 R16 Confederation Distribution — Quarter-Finalists
Europe dominates with 6 of 8 QF spots. Only Argentina (SA) and Morocco (AF) represent other confederations.
🎯 R16 Environment Distribution — Who Advanced
Open environments dominated (4 QF teams). Belgium + Switzerland are first Suppressed teams to advance. 1 Inverted (Dominant) eliminated.
💰 R16 Financial Summary — Stage Delta Closed
8 QF teams × $19M = $152M. 8 eliminated × $15M = $120M. $32M stage delta moved from R32 to R16 level.
📋 Prize Truth / Data Integrity
This dashboard separates three independent layers:
- Official FIFA performance prize tiers — sourced from inside.fifa.com
- Tournament-stage survival movement — who advances, who exits
- NTG delta analysis — by team, group, continent, and environment
The key metric is not static prize money. The key metric is stage-to-stage delta: how value moves after each elimination round. Stage Delta = jump from previous round. Cumulative Delta = total gain from $9M baseline.
| Stage ↕ | Position ↕ | Prize (USD) ↕ | Stage Delta ↕ | Teams ↕ | Cumulative Delta ↕ |
|---|
Source: FIFA Council — Record-breaking World Cup 2026 financial contribution
📈 Prize Delta by Stage — Visual
How much each stage adds to the prize pool. The bars show the irreversible financial commitment made at each elimination round.
Next: After each knockout round
Coverage: Loading from database...
📊 Group Stage Results
✓ Complete — 12 groups, 48 teams classified by SPI (91.7% held) and GEI environment type.
View fixtures
Matchday 3 — SPI Breakdown
| Group ↕ | Fixture ↕ | Expected ↕ | Result ↕ | SPI ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPI requires matchday 3 fixture data (expected vs actual results). Add wc2026_matchday3 table with fields: group, fixture, expected_team, actual_result, spi_held. | ||||
View group breakdown
Group Data by GEI Type
GEI = Top Team’s Goal Share % — the % of all group goals scored by the #1 team.
| Group ↕ | GEI ↕ | Top Share ⓘ ↕ | Top GF ⓘ ↕ | TGG ⓘ ↕ | Rule ↕ |
|---|
How to read: SPI measures whether group-stage competitive ordering held through Matchday 3. Higher = stronger teams advanced as expected. Lower = upsets disrupted expected ordering.
👥 Knockout Tracking — All 48 Teams
🏅 Active — Tracks every team's path from group seed through each knockout round. 42 eliminated, 6 still competing.
Track every team from group seed through Round of 32 → Round of 16 → Quarter-Finals → Semi-Finals → Final. Admin edits update live.
| Grp ↕ | Team ↕ | Seed ↕ | Knockout Position ↕ | Path ↕ |
|---|
🏆 Knockout Results — Match by Match
🏆 ACTIVE — Stage 4 (QF): 2/4 completed. R16 COMPLETE (8/8). Live results with scores, winners, game notes, upcoming fixtures.
Live results from Round of 32 through the Final. Updates automatically from your Supabase database.
✅ Stage 2 — Round of 32 (Complete)
| Match ↕ | Stage ↕ | Date ↕ | Team 1 ↕ | Score ↕ | Team 2 ↕ | Winner ↕ | Notes ↕ |
|---|
🏅 Stage 3 — Round of 16
✅ Completed
| Match ↕ | Stage ↕ | Date ↕ | Team 1 ↕ | Score ↕ | Team 2 ↕ | Winner ↕ | Notes ↕ |
|---|
⏳ Upcoming
| Match ↕ | Stage ↕ | Date ↕ | Team 1 ↕ | Score ↕ | Team 2 ↕ | Status ↕ | Notes ↕ |
|---|
ⓘ Matches with no score are upcoming fixtures. SPI and preservation_delta shown in downloadable dataset.
🏆 Stage 4 — Quarter-Finals (Active: 2/4 completed)
| Match ↕ | Stage ↕ | Date ↕ | Team 1 ↕ | Score ↕ | Team 2 ↕ | Status ↕ | Notes ↕ |
|---|
🏆 Quarter-Final Bracket
France 2–0 Morocco
Spain 2–1 Belgium
Norway vs England
Argentina vs Switzerland
📊 TCI KPI Report — By Environment Category
⚡ Framework metrics — How are GEI/SPI environments performing? Advancement rates, preservation scores, TCI verdicts by environment type (Constrained, Open, Dominant, Inverted).
Key Performance Indicators for each group environment type. Calculated from live match results.
| Environment ↕ | Groups ↕ | Teams ↕ | Played ↕ | Advanced ↕ | Eliminated ↕ | Advance % ↕ | Avg GEI ↕ | Avg Goals ↕ | TCI Verdict ↕ |
|---|
Data refreshes from database on page load. Export full dataset via Download Dataset section.
🏆 Knockout Group Metric — Day by Day
📅 Tracking — Each group's knockout performance as matches complete. Wins, eliminations, survival %, day-by-day progression.
Track every group through the knockout rounds. Updates live as matches complete.
| Grp ↕ | Env Type ↕ | GEI ↕ | Teams Qualified ↕ | Still Alive ↕ | Eliminated ↕ | Wins ↕ | Losses ↕ | Survival % ↕ | Latest Round ↕ | TCI Trend ↕ |
|---|
📅 Day-by-Day Progression
Survival % = teams still alive / teams that qualified. TCI Trend shows whether the group is overperforming or underperforming expectations based on GEI.
⚽ Goal Progression Tracker — Group Stage Baseline → Knockout
📈 Offense model — How does goal production change through knockout rounds? Group-stage baseline plus R32, R16, QF, SF, and Final additions. The offensive decay curve.
Each team's group-stage goal total is their baseline. Knockout rounds add game-by-game. Groups are color-coded. Eliminated teams are marked ❌.
📈 Group Goal Trajectory
| Group ↕ | Env ↕ | Group Stage Goals ↕ | R32 Goals ↕ | R16 Goals ↕ | QF Goals ↕ | SF Goals ↕ | Final Goals ↕ | Knockout Total ↕ | Tournament Total ↕ | Goal Drop % ↕ |
|---|
🔍 Team-by-Team Goal Breakdown
| Team ↕ | Grp ↕ | Seed ↕ | Group Stage (Baseline) ↕ | R32 ↕ | R16 ↕ | QF ↕ | SF ↕ | Final ↕ | Knockout Total ↕ | Tournament Total ↕ | Status ↕ |
|---|
📊 Goal Output Analysis
Group Stage = total goals scored in 3 group matches (baseline). Knockout rounds = goals per match. Goal Drop % = (group goals - knockout goals) / group goals. Negative = teams scored MORE in knockouts.
💰 Team Financial Delta — Prize Money by Stage
💰 Individual teams — How much additional FIFA prize money has each team earned? Current stage, prize, delta, alive status, next matchup.
Track every team’s prize money from the $9M group-stage baseline through each knockout round. Delta = current prize minus $9M baseline. Eliminated teams lock their prize at the exit stage.
| Team ↕ | Grp ↕ | Seed ↕ | Continent ↕ | Status ↕ | Current Prize ↕ | Delta ↕ | Exit Stage ↕ | Next Matchup ↕ |
|---|
Baseline = $9M (group stage exit). Each advancement adds the stage delta. Champion = $50M (+$41M delta). Data updates after each match.
🌎 Continental Knockout & Financial Resilience
🌎 Survival story — Which continent is surviving best? Original teams, alive, eliminated, QF+ reached, finalists, champion.
Track every continent through the knockout rounds. Prize money estimates based on FIFA WC2026 announced tiers. "Resilience" = earnings vs. team count expectation.
| Continent ↕ | Teams ↕ | Alive ↕ | Eliminated ↕ | R32 Out ↕ | R16 Out ↕ | QF Out ↕ | SF+ ↕ | Earnings/Team ↕ | Total Earnings ↕ | Resilience Score ↕ |
|---|
💰 Prize Money Breakdown by Continent
WC2026 prize pool: ~$1.1B. Official performance ladder: Group stage exit = $9M, Round of 32 = $11M, Round of 16 = $15M, Quarterfinals = $19M, 4th = $27M, 3rd = $29M, Runner-up = $33M, Champion = $50M. Resilience Score = actual earnings / expected earnings (equal distribution). >100% = overperforming.
🏆 Continental Advancement & Financial Yield
💰 Money story — Which continent is capturing the tournament's financial value? Total prize, yield per team, CER, FSR, financial share.
Formula-driven continental advancement metrics. All values computed from live data — group standings, match results, and FIFA prize tiers. Numbers change automatically after every match result.
| Continent | Original Teams | Total Prize | Stage Delta | Avg Prize/Team | Financial Share | CER % | FSR % |
|---|
Methodology: CAE = teams_reached_current_stage / original_continent_teams. Incremental Advancement Value = teams_reached_r16_or_deeper × stage_delta (R16 prize - R32 prize). CER = current_total_prize / baseline_total_prize. FSR = remaining_possible_prize / max_possible_prize. Status rules: lost completed match = Eliminated; won completed match = Alive; scheduled/pending match = Pending; no match record = Unknown/Awaiting. Never treat missing data as eliminated.
⚡ Tournament Value Redistribution — Economic Impact Dashboard
⚡ Value movement — Did value stay with higher-value teams or move elsewhere? Preservation rate (83.3%), redistribution, upsets, continent flow.
This framework measures how tournament results redistribute competitive and financial value. For every match, it tracks the economic movement created by the outcome — not which team "should" have won, but how the result changed the tournament's competitive and economic landscape.
| Match ↕ | Stage ↕ | Team 1 (Score) ↕ | Team 2 (Score) ↕ | Result ↕ | Prize Before ↕ | Prize After ↕ | Value Preserved? ↕ | Score Gap ↕ | Continent Impact ↕ |
|---|
Methodology: Projected Value Score (0–10) = composite of group position weight, GEI environment multiplier, and prize exposure. Prize Before = combined prize value both teams represented entering the match. Prize After = prize value of the advancing team at the next stage. Value Preserved = did the team with the higher Projected Value Score advance? This measures structural value retention, not prediction accuracy.
📈 Environment Preservation Index (EPI) — Survival Curves
📈 Environment story — Which competitive environments survive longest? Open at 37.5% EPI, Suppressed at 31.3%, Balanced at 25%, Dominant 0%.
EPI = Remaining Teams / Qualified Teams tracked daily through the tournament. Each environment type gets a survival curve. Watch suppressed, balanced, open, and dominant environments diverge as knockout play progresses.
How much did each environment move today? EVI measures stability, not just survival.
📈 Environment Survival Curves
| Environment ↕ | Groups ↕ | Qualified ↕ | Alive ↕ | EPI ↕ | Group Goals ↕ | KO Goals ↕ | Offensive Preservation ↕ | Trend ↕ |
|---|
📅 Daily EPI Snapshots
| Day ↕ | Suppressed ↕ | Balanced ↕ | Open ↕ | Dominant ↕ | Inverted ↕ | Notes ↕ |
|---|
EPI measures environment preservation across tournament phases. Offensive Preservation = (Group Goals - Knockout Goals) / Group Goals. Higher decay = environment lost offensive production in knockouts. Survival curves update after each match day.
📈 Team Profiles (Sortable)
👥 All 48 teams — Compare across SPI rank, GEI environment, TCI score, goals, knockout progression. Click column headers to sort.
Compare every team — 48 total across 12 groups. Click any column header to sort by SPI rank, GEI environment type, TCI score, goals scored, and knockout progression.
| Team ↕ | Grp ↕ | Seed ↕ | SPI Rank ↕ | GEI Type ↕ | GEI % ↕ | TCI ↕ | R16+ ↕ |
|---|
📐 The TCI Methodology — NTG Framework
📖 Framework documentation — How SPI, GEI, and TCI work. The theory behind the dashboard. Understanding the tournament framework.
ⓘ What is TCI?
The Tournament Carryover Index (TCI) is a predictive metric developed by Name The Game (NTG) under the Natural Technical Governance (NTG) framework. TCI asks: Does a team's group-stage environment predict their knockout success?
TCI is built on two verified indices — SPI and GEI — combined into a single carryover score for each team.
📈 SPI — Strategic Performance Index
SPI measures whether the competitive ordering established by Matchday 2 was preserved in Matchday 3. If favorites held their positions, SPI is high and the group is "honest."
✓ SPI computed from group standings after data loads
Threshold: >66% = "held", ≤66% = "broke"
👥 GEI — Group Environment Index
GEI classifies each group by measuring how much the top team dominated goal-scoring. A high share means the group was flat or suppressed; a low share means it was open and competitive.
Dominant >60% share — one team overwhelmed the group
Constrained 45–60% share — top team won a flat group
Open <45% share + SPI held — competitive, honest group
Inverted <45% share + SPI broke — competitive but upsets occurred
⚙ TCI Calculation
Where:
• SPIteam = did this team hold its Matchday 2 seed? (1/0)
• GEIgroup = group environment score (0–100 normalized)
• Knockout Path = progression depth bonus (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)
• α, β, γ = NTG-calibrated weights
💡 Current Observation
Teams emerging from Open + Honest groups (GEI <45%, SPI held) have shown stronger knockout performance in matches analyzed so far.
The Tournament Carryover Index continues to evaluate whether this pattern persists as additional knockout rounds are completed. Teams from dominant groups may be under-prepared for the intensity shift.
🔗 NTG Ecosystem Links
• NTG: Natural Technical Governance — the decision-science framework powering TCI
• HUGS ID: Athlete identity system connecting player data across NTG platforms
• name-the-game.com: Primary NTG platform for tournament analytics
• Learn.XPGuess.com: Educational deployment of NTG methodology (this dashboard)
🤖 Machine-Readable JSON / Bot Extraction
Canonical public dataset — stable schema for AI agents, researchers, search crawlers, and external integrations.
<script id="wc2026-tci-machine-data" type="application/json">Dataset version: —
Extraction rule: use the embedded canonical JSON for match facts and status. Dashboard-computed KPI exports remain available through “Download JSON” and “Download Full Snapshot.”
Source of truth: this JSON is rebuilt from live Supabase tables (wc2026_matches / groups / prize_tiers / team_metadata) after every admin upload and by a daily cron at 03:00 UTC — so dashboard KPIs and the machine-readable JSON can never drift.
💾 Download Dataset
📥 Export — Download full TCI dataset as CSV or JSON. Group standings with GEI/SPI + knockout matches with scores and preservation delta.
Export the full TCI dataset as CSV or JSON for analysis in Excel, R, Python, or Tableau.
🔄 Import Dataset
Upload a previously exported JSON snapshot to restore the full dashboard without hitting the database.
CSV: Two sheets — (1) Group standings with all 48 teams, GEI, SPI, knockout position (2) Knockout matches with scores, winners, penalties, SPI, preservation delta. JSON: Full tournament object with groupStandings + knockoutMatches arrays. Full Snapshot: Complete dump of all raw data including groups, matches, and computed fields. Can be re-imported later.
🔒 Admin — Edit Knockout Results
🔑 Admin only — Two-step authentication required. Edit knockout positions, save to database, update all tables live. Authorized NTG administrators only.
Two-step authentication required. Only authorized NTG administrators can edit knockout data.
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